The KPMG 2022 CEO Outlook, which asked more than 1,300 CEOs of the world’s largest businesses about their strategies and outlook, reveals that 58% of leaders expect a recession to be mild and short.

14% of senior executives identify a recession among the most pressing concerns today, up slightly from early 2022, while pandemic fatigue tops the list.

Over the next year, more than 8 out of 10 global CEOs anticipate a recession to hit, with 71% predicting it will impact company earnings by up to 10%. A strong majority of senior executives believe that a recession will disrupt anticipated growth, however three-quarters have already taken precautionary steps ahead of a looming recession.

Despite those concerns, senior executives also feel markedly more confident about the resilience of the economy over the next six months than they did in February, when KPMG surveyed 500 CEOs for its CEO Outlook Pulse survey. In addition, 71% of leaders are confident about the global economy's growth prospects over the next three years (up from 60% in early 2022) and nearly 9 in 10 are confident about their organisation’s growth over the next three years.

“Once in a generation issues, such as a global pandemic, geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and financial difficulties, have come in short succession and taken a toll on the optimism of global CEOs,” said Bill Thomas, Chairman and CEO of KPMG International.  “While it is unsurprising the economic climate is now the top concern for business leaders, it’s reassuring to see high levels of confidence among executives in their own companies and their longer term prospects for growth.”

He added: “The events of recent years have created real turbulence for the business community. Our findings should provide some cautious optimism that in contending with and overcoming these ordeals, executives are emerging more confident in their companies’ resilience and hopefully the markets will follow suit, mitigating some of the greater uncertainties we've all felt.”

Photo:  Bill Thomas, CEO of KPMG.